60% of Canadian mortgages will renew in 2025–2026, with five-year fixed borrowers facing ↑ 15–20% payment increases.
~25% of borrowers could see payments drop, especially those with variable-rate, variable-payment mortgages.
10% of fixed-payment variable-rate borrowers may face payment spikes over ↑ 40% due to negative amortization.
Median mortgage debt service ratios will rise from 15.3% to 18% by late 2026.
Most borrowers can manage increases with income gains, amortization extensions, or home equity line access.

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